Bethel Park, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

447
FXUS61 KPBZ 141648
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1248 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and storms will be possible in the higher
elevations this afternoon, with other areas remaining dry behind
a departing front. Weak surface high pressure continues the
mainly dry pattern through Saturday, with a slow warming trend. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return Sunday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the ridges
  and nrn WV, otherwise dry weather this afternoon
- Mostly clear with patchy fog tonight

---------------------------------------------------------------

Morning fog and stratus have lifted into a scattered to broken
cumulus deck, which will persist through the afternoon, but
should begin to show erosion as drier air sinks in. A surface
boundary will continue to sink south of the Mason-Dixon Line
this afternoon and then exit the region. Most locations west of
the ridges should remain dry this afternoon, thanks to
decreasing moisture an a warm layer aloft. An isolated shower
or storm may still fire near this boundary before it exits, but
coverage of any such activity should remain sparse. Even behind
the front, a shower is possible in higher elevation locations.

The remaining cumulus and precipitation will collapse with
sunset, leading to a mostly clear night. Another round of fog is
possible, although depth and coverage should be a little less
after a day of drying. Temperatures remain fairly seasonable
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Mainly dry through Saturday night, with a few ridge showers
- Hot weather returns
----------------------------------------------------------------

During this period, weak surface ridging from Canadian high pressure
will generally be in place across the Upper Ohio Valley, with some
modest troughing in the mid-levels. Model soundings point to a warm
layer aloft, which along with the surface ridge should provide a
mainly dry pattern. The ridges to the east and southeast of
Pittsburgh could see a few isolated to scattered showers/storms both
Friday and Saturday afternoon however, as modest upslope flow and
convergence may help to overcome capping locally.

850mb temperatures will show a slow upward trend, with model means
of around 19C by Saturday. This should lead to an uptick in daytime
non-ridge highs back into the upper 80s for many on Friday, and to
around 90 on Saturday. Dewpoints should remain in the 60s through
this period though, keeping heat index values in check. Experimental
NWS Heat Risk levels do remain in the Moderate range at most through
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot on Sunday, with better shower and storm chances
- Unsettled for the first half of next week
- Temperatures returning to seasonable levels with time
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles are in good agreement that a large ridge remains centered
over the central CONUS/Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Westward
retrogression of this ridge is then indicated across the Plains and
towards the Rockies by Thursday.

Sunday remains a hot one, with many locations reaching the lower 90s
for highs, and some heat index values in the mid-90s in valleys and
urban locations. A cold front is still progged to accompany a
shortwave that will drop down on the eastern periphery of the ridge
to our west. At least scattered showers and storms will accompany
the boundary, with chances highest north of Pittsburgh closer to
upper support and more favorable frontal timing. Precipitable
water mean values of 1.6 to 1.7 inches suggests some downpours
are possible, but the setup for a larger flooding threat does
not appear to be there. Also, with a progged lack of deep shear,
an organized severe weather threat does not appear likely.
Extended machine- learning guidance suggests a low-end threat at
most at this point - if a dry layer aloft can establish,
perhaps isolated downbursts could be possible.

Depending on the timing of the front, a few showers/storms could
linger on Monday, most likely in the ridges, and then the boundary
may nearly stall out near or just south of the Upper Ohio Valley.
Slow height falls associated with the retrograding ridge may
establish zonal flow or a shallow trough over the northeast CONUS,
with cluster analysis showing varying scenarios. The boundary would
then waver into the midweek period, with shortwaves in northwest
flow providing shower and storm chances at least into Wednesday,
before perhaps a decrease in chances by Thursday.

After the Sunday heat, the height falls and rain chances point to a
slow downward trend in temperatures, with more seasonable readings
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGs have been stubborn to lift and mix out this morning but
broken MVFR cu has been reached at many ports. Further
scattering is expected shortly and region wide VFR is expected
by this afternoon. Diurnal cu is expected to abate after sunset
giving way to largely clear skies. This could set up another
batch of fog tomorrow morning with MGW the most likely culprit.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the period and
into the weekend.

Outlook... High confidence in prevailing VFR with dry weather
into the weekend as high pressure develops across New England.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...AK